Home/Cheese export: the forecast for 2015-2020 is rosy although Italy is moving along sluggishly

Cheese export: the forecast for 2015-2020 is rosy although Italy is moving along sluggishly

While the world’s dairy industry is showing signs of growth with cheese exports that are set to increase in value by 2.3% in 2015-2020, in Italy consumption is falling. Cattlesheds are suffering a real crisis. This is what has emerged from a report by Confcooperative (the Confederation of the Italian Cooperatives) based on Euromonitor data.
In 2010-2015 the sale of cheese in Italy fell by almost 6% in volume – from 612,000 tonnes in 2010 to 576,000 in 2015 – and by almost 7% in value – from 6.7 to 6.2 bn euros. Positive performances were only seen from soft fresh cheeses which registered an increase of 6% in volume.
The situation is made less bleak by previously mentioned positive signals arriving from international markets such as China, India and Indonesia – countries with potentially limitless markets – which will see cheese imports increase. In the period in question the following countries are also set to register positive figures: north American countries (2.2%), Eastern Europe (2.5%), Latin America (3.4%) and some countries of the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula. The growth forecast for western European countries is decidedly more modest – less than a percentage point, i.e. 0.6%.
It emerges from the report that there are good expectations for hard cheeses in the United States, which should see +10% in volume and +15% in value. Figures regarding the cheese market in China are extremely interesting; sales of both hard and soft cheeses planned from 2015-2020 should register an increase in value of 135%. The growth rate for hard cheese is expected to be 139%.
Also in Japan the positive trend of the last five-year period is expected to continue into the next five years, with packaged hard cheeses registering an increase of 13% and soft cheeses one of 12%.
It seems obvious how necessary it is for Italian cheese producers to focus more strongly on exports as in 2015 Italian cheese sales grew by 10% (360,000 tonnes with a turnover of 2.2 bn euros). However, despite the potential of top-quality Italian dairy products, Germany, with 5.1 bn dollars of revenue resulting from cheese exports and a global market share of 15.7%, weighs far more heavily on world exports than Italy, which ‘only’ has 8.7%.